Game-log hit rates for NFL player props. Set a line, read how often it actually cleared.
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Matchups
Week 1
Click a game to filter the player list to those two teams.
Floor board
Head to head
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Season averages
Game log vs. the line
Over the lineUnder the lineLineLow snap countNewest game at right
Matchup—
Defensive splits are what each team allowed per game to the position, summed across every opposing player at that spot — a team-level tendency, not a shadow-coverage read.
By opponent—
Injury report—
Availability moves lines more than any stat here. A teammate ruled Out is
the usual reason a target or carry share jumps — check who is missing before trusting a rate.
Game log
Key — what each column meansopen
Reading this honestly. A hit rate is a backward-looking frequency, not a probability.
Small samples swing hard — ten games is a ±15pt margin of error, and a line that moved
because of injury, weather, or scheme makes old games poor comparables. The break-even above
already includes the book’s vig, so clearing it by a point or two is noise, not edge.
Stats: nflverse, regular season. Schedule & logos: ESPN.