Game-log hit rates for NFL player props. Set a line, read how often it actually cleared.
Reading this honestly. A hit rate is a backward-looking frequency, not a probability. Small samples swing hard — ten games is a ±15pt margin of error, and a line that moved because of injury, weather, or scheme makes old games poor comparables. The break-even above already includes the book’s vig, so clearing it by a point or two is noise, not edge.